The winners and losers of black friday 2016


Coleman Chair Professor in Marketing at Business School;Director of Research, Center for Retailing Studies

Blachồng Friday và Cyber Monday are only days away. So how does this year’s retail shopping season look? All estimates point to a bullish holiday season.

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The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts retail holiday sales lớn be $656 billion, the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC) projects them khổng lồ be $684 billion; và Deloitte Consulting is even more optimistic, pegging sales at $1 trillion. Depending on the estimate, the expected growth rate over last year ranges from 3 to 4.4 percent. Retail holiday e-commerce is anticipated lớn range from $91.6 billion (Adobe Digital Insights ) khổng lồ $98 billion (Deloitte Consulting). Much of the holiday shopping will come from a large number of shoppers making small purchases. An overwhelming majority of shoppers (78 percent) will be spending less than $1,000 during the holidays (Qualtrics).

With such optimistic growth scenario for the holiday season, retail sales around the Thanksgiving weekkết thúc are also expected to show cchiến bại khổng lồ double-digit growth. ADI expects both Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales to be around $3 billion each with projected growth rates between 9.4 percent & 11.6 percent. About 137.4 million consumers will likely siêu thị during the Thanksgiving weekkết thúc (Fortune). 74 percent of all shoppers plan khổng lồ shop on Black Friday, while 36 percent intend to shop on Cyber Monday (NRF). We have sầu all heard of the 80/20 rule; 80 percent of spending comes from 20 percent of the shoppers. However, during the Thanksgiving weekkết thúc, the 35/5 rule applies—that is, 5 percent of the shoppers will likely contribute khổng lồ 35 percent of the sales revenues (ADI).

Amid this upbeat sales expectation, the most interesting trover is how shopper habits are changing. Roughly 62 percent of the shoppers compare online và offline prices (Qualtrics); 68 percent read online Đánh Giá before purchasing (Qualtrics); 85 percent plan to browse online before purchase (ICSC). In fact, digital interactions, whether they occur through a điện thoại thông minh, tablet, or desktop, will likely drive sầu 67 percent of all holiday sales (Deloitte Consulting).

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We now live in a mobile-first world—more than 50 percent shoppers start their shopping journey through a thiết bị di động device. However, among the devices used khổng lồ siêu thị, desktop PCs still have sầu the highest conversion rate. Albeit a meager 3.5 percent, it is about 2.7 times the conversion rate for smartphones (1.3 percent). A few trends point to a different Thanksgiving shopping weekover this year. Several predominant brick-and-mortar retailers (e.g., Nordstrom, trang chủ Depot, Gamestop) will choose lớn remain closed during Thanksgiving day, putting their employees first và taking a cue from REI’s bold experiment last year. They will hope to lớn trang điểm for the opportunity loss in sales through greater employee motivation throughout the year & through online orders. However, retailers like Sears và K-mart, who depkết thúc on their customers to order and pichồng up at the stores, will face a new problem because they have shut down many stores. Further, with credit thẻ chip readers not fully installed at all retailers (only about half of all stores have sầu the chip reader), some shoppers may be wary that their retail credit thẻ transactions may not be completely secure.

What items are likely khổng lồ be hot during the Thanksgiving weekend & how are shoppers going to lớn get their holiday gift ideas? As always, the iPhone is a coveted nhà cửa (Qualtrics). Millennials are twice as likely to learn about holiday gifts from social truyền thông media than baby boomers & Gen X’ers (Qualtrics). According to lớn ADI, the top five holiday gifts in order of social media popularity are Pokétháng Sun/Moon, Barbie, Legos, Oculus và PlayStation VR.

What are the best days for getting the best deals và on which items? ADI recommends:

Nov. 22 for apparelThanksgiving Day for jewelry, appliances, computers, tablets, TVs & sporting goodsBlack Friday for Christmas décorCyber Monday for toysGiving Tuesday for furniture & bedding

The Thanksgiving shopping game is changing. There is something exciting for everyone. Whether you are a touch-and-feel shopper at a physical store, a desktop clicker or a di động shopper, you have sầu more choices than before. If you are a retailer, there is plenty to lớn gain through omnichannel retailing. If you are an analyst and researcher lượt thích me, it is fun tracking, analyzing và predicting shopping behavior & shopper kinh doanh.

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